PARTS I.—VIII. WITH INTRODUCTORY REPORT BY THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL

Tasmani:

JOHN, VAIL, GOVERNEMNT PRITNER, HOBART.

1903.

[Cost of printing Census, Report, &c.—£519 8s 0d.]

INDEX TO REPORT.

Acerage in Cultivation necessary to maintain a civilised Community

Age-Groups—Contrast of proportions with other Countries

Age-Groups—Contrasted with former Census Periods

Ages of the People

Ages of the People by Quinquennial and other Age-Periods in each State of the Commonwealth and New Zealand at the last Census (1901)

Agriculture—Progress of Agriculture

Annual Estimates of Population since 1841, how framed

Area in square miles of each Electoral District

Area to be traversed by Sub-Enumerators

Birth-places at different Census Periods

Birth-places of the People

Birth-rate in Australasia since 1861

Blind—Number and Proportion

Blindness in a large measure a condition of Age

Blindness in different Countries in relation to Age

Born in Tasmania

Born in Australasia

Born in England and Wales

Born in Scotland

Born in Ireland

Born in United Kingdom

Born in Other British Possessions

Born in Foreign Countries

Breadwinners, Average percentage Proportion of different Classes in different Countries

Breadwinners, Distribution of various Classes in each Electoral District

Breadwinners, Numbers and Proportions in each Class

Breadwinners, Percentage Proportion in different Countries

Breadwinners, under distinct Age-Groups

Categories, Relating to the Dwelling

Categories, Relating to the Individual

Categories, Relating to the Censuses of 1881, 1891, and 1901

Census Act

Census Compilation

Census Conference at Sydney

Census Date of

Census Initial preparations

Census Means adopted to enlist the interests of the People

Census Resolutions of Conference to secure uniformity in Tabulation

Census of David

Census of Moses

Census of Joab

Census Subjects of inquiry

Census the objects and utility of

Census-taking, History of

Census-taking, in other Countries

Census-taking, in France

Census-taking, in Quebee

Census-taking, in Great Britain

Census-taking, in Ireland

Census-taking, in Norway

Census-taking, in Sweden

Census-taking, in Tasmania

Census-taking, in United States

Census-taking, Local preparations for

Charts, Preparation of

Cities, Towns, and Villages having a Population of 100 and over

Comparative progress at different Periods

Comparative progress of Cities, Towns, and Mining and other Centres during the last Intercensal Period

Conjugal Condition of the People

Concluding Observations

Conference of Australasian Statisticians

Cost of Census—Total cost

Cost of Enumeration in Tasmania

Cost of Enumeration in different Countries

Cost of Enumeration at different Periods

Deaf and Dumb, Number and Proportion

Deaf Mutes in various Countries

Death-rate in Australasia since 1861

Death-rate in relation to the capacity of the Dwelling

Dwellings, Number of

Education—Degree of Education according to Age

Education—Improvement since previous Census

Education—in Australasian States

Education—of the People

Education—of Children

Education—proportion at Age of 15 who could read and write in each Electoral District

Education—receiving instruction at "School-Age"

Education—Tasmania compared with other Australian States

Fertile Age—Women

Grades of Occupation—Employers

Grades of Occupation—Engaged on own account

Grades of Occupation—Wage-Earners

Grades of Occupation—Unemployed

Habitations of the People

Introduction to General Report

Labour involved in Compilation and Tabulation

Length of Residence of Persons living in Tasmania born elsewhere

Lodgment showing the percentage of families living in houses of 1 room, 2 rooms, 3 rooms, 4 rooms and 5 rooms and over

Marriageable Men and Women

Method of Tabulation by the Card System

Migration, Balance of, during Thirty years

Migration, Australasian Colonies

Migration, Gain or Loss at each Intercensal period since 1841

Migration, United Kingdom

Natural Increase in Australasia since 1861

Newly-established Centres of Population

Occupations of the People

Occupations Classification of

Occupations Conditions upon which the proportions of the several Classes of Occupations depend

Occupations Grades

Occupations Dependants on Breadwinners, &c.

Occupations Distributors of Materials (commercial, transport, and communication)

Occupations Modifiers of Materials (industrial)

Occupations Employers

Occupations Personal and Immaterial Services (classes, professional and domestic)

Occupations Primary Producers

Occupations Related to the Land

Occupations Indefinite

Occupations Order of Importance

Occupations Principles upon which Classification is based

Occupations Systematic Tabulation under Classes, Orders, and Sub-Orders

Occupations Two last Censuses compared

Occupations Under 24 Orders

Population—Aggregation in Urban, Suburban, and Rural Districts

Population—Annual Rate of Increase during the last century in the United Kingdom, United States, Canada, Australasia, and Tasmania

Population—Number of years required to double Population, in different Countries, and at different Periods

Population—By natural Age-Groups

Population—Causes upon which Growth depends

Population—Distribution and Movement by Electoral Divisions

Population—Estimated Population in Tasmania and in the Commonwealth during the next 100 years

Population—Increase 1891-1901, in various Countries

Population—Increase last Census, 1901, in Australasia

Population—Increase last Census, 1901, in Tasmania

Population—Progress of Population during last Inter-censal period in each of the States of the Commonwealth and New Zealand

Population—Of the larger Geographical Divisions

Population—Rate of Increase abnormal in the earlier years

Population—Rate of Increase diminishing in recent years

Progress—General Progress since 1891

Progress—of Population

Preparatory Work of the Central Office

Printing—Work involved

Religion—Census of Religion taken in nearly all civilised Countries, save England and Scotland

Religion—Proportion of Persons who "object" to state the Denomination to which they belong

Religion—Proportion of Principal Denominations relative to total Population

Religion—and Education

Religions of the People

Schools—Attendance

Schools—Receiving Instruction in State and other Schools or Colleges

Scope of a Census

Segregation of Ages at Decennial Periods

Sickness and Accident at each Age

Sickness and Accident Disablement of Men, yearly

Sickness and Accident Influence of Age, Climate, Density of Population, Occupation, &c

Sickness and Accident Working Days Lost per man, per year, at each and all Groups of Ages

Sickness and Accident Yearly disablement in various Countries

Sickness and Infirmity

Sickness and Infirmity Disabled from, at each Age-Period

Sickness and Infirmity Unable to follow Occupation by reason of Accident

Sickness and Infirmity Unable to follow Occupation by reason of Sickness

Soldier's Age—Numbers at

Sub-Enumerators—Number and Distribution

Superior condition of the mass of the People of Tasmania as regards Lodgment, as compared with the average of England and Scotland

Tabulation—Systematic work of

Towns having a Population of 3000 and over

Tasmanians living in each Australasian State

Utility of a Modern Census

Weak link of the Census

Work of Enumeration

Worker's Age

CENSUS OF TASMANIA, 1901. GENERAL REPORT.

Registrar-General's Office, Hobart, 12th September, 1902.

TO THE HONOURABLE THE CHIEF SECRETARY.

SIR,

After an interval of nearly ten years from the taking of the previous Census in Tasmania, the Ninth Census was taken simultaneously with the other States of the Commonwealth of Australia and with New Zealand, on the night of Sunday, the 31st March, 1901.

According to the rule hitherto adopted by the Statisticians of Australasia for fixing the date, viz., the first Sunday following the first day of April, it would have been necessary to take the last Census on the 7th April, 1901. This would have been Easter Sunday. The Conference of Australasian Statisticians, held in Sydney on the 25th January, 1900, to arrange for the collection and compilation of the Census of 1901 upon a uniform principle, was of opinion that it would be unwise to adopt that date, owing to the great disturbance of population which always occurs at Easter time. For this and other important reasons the various Parliaments of the States of Australia and of New Zealand finally fixed upon the Sunday night preceding Easter Sunday, viz., 31st March, 1901. At this time it was intimated that the Census of the United Kingdom would be fixed for the same day, and the desire to be in unison with the Mother Country was the main reason why the Census in Australasia was fixed before, rather than after, the Easter time.

In Tasmania the enumeration of people and dwellings, and the particulars agreed upon by the adoption of the "Model Householder's Schedule," were so far successfully carried out or obtained that the Superintendent of the Census was enabled to publish the general results concerning population, dwellings, and distribution in theGazetteof 23rd April, 1901, that is within about three weeks of the Census day. More extended summaries were published from time to time, and early in the month of January, 1902, the following important summaries were published in "Population" (Part V.) of the "Statistics of the Colony" for the year 1900, viz. :—

• Population, General Summary, Dwellings.—Number and description, occupation, materials, rooms, details of rental and assessment.

• Density of population and houses at successive Census periods.

• Increase of population at successive Censuses.

• Distribution and density of population within Electoral, Municipal, and Registration Districts.

• Cities, Towns, and Villages of more than 100 inhabitants.

• Ages of the People.

• Conjugal Condition under different Age Groups.

• Education at successive Censuses.

• Sickness and Infirmity at successive Censuses.

• Religious Denominations in Cities and Rural Districts.

• Birthplaces of the Urban and Rural Population.

• Breadwinners—Numbers and Classes, Grades and Ages, Distribution by Electoral Districts.

• Occupations—Distribution showing Numbers under each Class and Order.

The compilation of the whole of the detailed Census Tables under the various categories were satisfactorily completed in manuscript by the 22nd October, 1901 ; that is within seven months of the date fixed for the taking of the Census. In consequence, however, of more than ordinary pressure of work being imposed upon the Government Printer, the printing of the various Parts has been very much delayed. Parts have now been printed and published, and the remaining Parts are so well in hand that I am enabled to furnish you with the usual necessary analyses and observations in the form of a General Report, which, as in former Censuses, serves as an introduction to the completed Tabular Parts.

SECTION I.—PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS.

HISTORY OF CENSUS-TAKING IN TASMANIA.

An account of the Ninth Census of Tasmania, taken on the night of the 31st March, 1901, simultaneously with nearly all other portions of the British Empire, would be incomplete without glancing at the history of previous attempts at enumeration of the people.

Although official estimates of the population were prepared from time to time after the first settlement was established in the Island on Monday, the 12th day of September, 1803, it was not until the 27th September, 1841, that the first proper Census of the population was undertaken. Since that time eight Censuses have been taken at intervals of from 3 to 11 years, or a mean interval of nearly 7 years between the various Censuses.

The earlier Censuses were taken more frequently, the average interval being only about 5½ years. The latter Censuses (1881, 1891, and 1901) were taken after longer intervals ; the interval between the Sixth and Seventh being 11 years ; between the Seventh and Eighth and Eighth and Ninth, nearly 10 years respectively, thus :—

• First Census, 27th Sept. 1841.

• Second Census, 31st Dec. 1847. Interval 6.26 years

• Third Census, 1st Mar. 1851. Interval 3.14 years

• Fourth Census, 31st Mar. 1857. Interval 6.08 years

• Fifth Census, 7th April 1861. Interval 4.02 years

• Sixth Census, 7th Feb. 1870. Interval 8.84 years

• Seventh Census, 3rd April 1881. Interval 11.15 years

• Eighth Census, 5th April 1891. Interval 10.01 years

• Ninth Census, 31st Mar. 1901. Interval 9.99 years

Thus it would appear the first proper Census of Tasmania was not undertaken until nearly 38 years after the date of its first settlement. This, however, is not to be wondered at when we consider that from the middle ages up to about this time violent prejudices against the enumeration of the people prevailed in nearly all the countries of the world.

HISTORY OF EARLY MODERN CENSUS-TAKING IN OTHER COUNTRIES.

Undoubtedly it is due to the unreasoning prejudices referred to in a previous chapter that no attempt was made to take a proper Census of Great Britain until as late as the year 1753. The Bill even then introduced was defeated in the House of Lords ; and this defeat may be taken as a proof of the strong surviving prejudice against an enumeration of the people. This is clearly manifested in the speech of Mr. Mathew Ridley, Member for Newcastle-upon-Tyne, in which he stated, among other objections, that he knew by letters that "the people looked on the proposal as ominous, and feared lest public misfortune or an epidemical distemper should follow the numbering." Nearly half a century passed away before another attempt was made (March, 10, 1801), which, however, proved successful. But we learn that this first attempt was far from perfect as an enumeration. The Census taken in Ireland for the first time, in 1812, is stated to have been a complete failure ; and the same authority states that the first successfulnominalCensus taken in the United Kingdom was that of Ireland in the year 1821, that is, only 20 years earlier than the firstnominalCensus taken in Tasmania. The earliest modern regular Censuses known, in which the old province of Quebec takes first place of honour, are :—

Happily the prejudices so strongly opposed to Census-taking up to the close of the eighteenth century have now died away almost entirely, and there is now no civilised country which does not avail itself of the information which can alone be obtained by a Census, and which is so essential to the good guidance of all matters relating to the political, social, and material interests of the people.

INITIAL PREPARATIONS FOR CENSUS OF 1901.

Census Conference held in Sydney.

The first important step to arrange for the collection and compilation of the Census of 1901 upon a uniform principle in Australasia, was that taken by the Premiers of the Seven Colonies of Australasia at a meeting held by them in Sydney on the 25th January, 1900. At this meeting the Premiers decided that a Conference of Statisticians, representing the Colonies of Australia and New Zealand, should, at an early day, be called together in Sydney for the purpose of making arrangements for the taking of a Census in each Colony during the year 1901. Accordingly, by the intervention of the Honourable Sir W. J. Lyne, K.C.M.G., Premier and Colonial Treasurer of New South Wales, a Conference of Statisticians representing each Colony was held in Sydney on 26th February, 1900, which continued its sittings to the 3rd of March, 1900.

The members of the Conference held, in all, six sittings.

The representatives of the various colonies taking part in the Conference were.—Mr. T. A. Coghlan, F.S.S, representing New South Wales ; Mr. von Dadelzen, New Zealand ; Mr. J. J. Fenton, Victoria ; Mr. M. A. C. Fraser, Western Australia ; Mr. J. Hughes, Queensland ; Mr. L. Sholl, South Australia ; and Mr. R. M. Johnston, F.S.S., Tasmania. Mr. Coghlan was unanimously chosen as Chairman of the Conference.

Mr. H. A. Smith, an officer of the Statistician's Department, New South Wales, was appointed Secretary, and Mr. W. Ridley, Deputy Registrar-General of New South Wales, by invitation, attended the Conference as advising Member.

In order to facilitate the business of the Conference three sub-committees were appointed. To the first sub-committee was entrusted the task of drawing up a uniform householder's schedule, to the second the revision of the classification of occupations, and to the third was given the duty of drawing up the reasons which led the Conference to recommend the fixing of the particular day for taking the Census.

The scope and limits of the subjects of enquiry was the first point to be determined, and after full discussion the Conference was of opinion that there should be only one addition to the inquiries made at the Census of 1891, viz., where the person enumerated was not born in the Colony he should be asked the length of time he has resided therein.

There were several suggestions for increasing the number of questions to be asked of the people, but the majority of the members of the Conference were of opinion that it would be unwise to extend the inquiries beyond the class of subjects usually prescribed in countries where the Census is taken upon schedules. If, as in some countries, the plan were adopted of appointing enumerators whose business it would be to make personal inquiries from house to house, and fill up their books from the particulars thus obtained, much more elaborate inquiries might be ventured upon.

In order to ensure uniformity, both in making inquiries at the Census and in presenting the results arrived at, the Conference agreed to adopt the form of a "Model Schedule," based upon certain resolutions already agreed upon. The members of the Conference pledged themselves, as far as it may be in their power, to adhere to these resolutions, as they were deeply impressed with the consideration that as six of the Colonies were about to enter upon a federation, the necessity of uniformity in the collection and presentation of all matters affecting finance and electoral representation was of vital importance.

In view of the difficulties which arose at some previous enumerations, owing to the model schedule being attached to the Census Act, the Conference unanimously resolved to recommend that the heads of inquiry only, and not the Census schedule, be embodied in the Census Act in those Colonies where such an Act is necessary.

The Conference decided again to adopt, with slight modification of one or two Sub-Groups, the Classification of Occupations drawn up for the Census Conference of 1891 by the accomplished Statistician of New South Wales (Mr. T. A. Coghlan) and myself.

The resolutions of the Conference drawn up and adopted number 22 in all. These were embodied in their final report, of which the following is an abstract :—

RESOLUTIONS OF THE CONFERENCE.

1.

That as the Sunday next following the 1st April, 1901, is Easter Sunday, and large numbers of persons are away from home on that day, the Census be taken as for another day.

Subjects of Inquiry.

2.

That the subjects respecting which it is desired that inquiry be made at the Census be named in "The Census Act," but that the Schedule containing those inquiries be not attached thereto.

3.

That the subjects for inquiry be as follow :—Name, Sex, Birthplace, Age, Religion, Occupation, Conjugal Condition, Education, Sickness and Infirmity, Materials of Houses, Number of Rooms, Length of Residence in the Colony.

4.

That the Return of Religion be not compulsory, and that it be optional to insert the word "object" instead, by any one having an objection to stating his religious belief.

5.

That the inquiry be made as to whether the person returned is an employer, a worker on his own account, or an employee, or whether he is unemployed.

6.

That with reference to Conjugal Condition, it be optional with each Colony to make inquiry as to the year of marriage, and the total number of children (living and dead) born to each couple.

7.

That with reference to Education, an inquiry be made as to those able to read and write, able to read only and not write, and unable to read ; also, as to those who may be graduates of any University, together with the designations of their respective degrees, and of the Universities at which such degrees were conferred.

8.

That with reference to Sickness and Infirmity, an inquiry be made as to the persons laid up or unable to pursue their usual occupation on account of illness or the effects of an accident, or who may be deaf and dumb, or blind.

9.

That in the Return of Houses, those inhabited, uninhabited, and in course of erection, be separately distinguished.

10.

That the Householder's Schedule should specify that persons traveling or out at work during the night of the Census (and not elsewhere returned), and who return home on the day after the Census, are to be included as if they were present in the house on the night of the Census.

11.

That in accordance with the foregoing resolutions, the Householder's Schedule drawn up by this Conference be the basis of the inquiries to be made under "The Census Act."

Compilation.

12.

That, as far as possible, the Chinese, Pacific Islanders, and other coloured races, as well as the Aborigines (including half-castes), be tabulated with the general population under every head of inquiry, and separate tables be prepared, so that it may be possible to separate them therefrom, as may be desired.

13.

That in working out proportions under any head of inquiry to show the ratio of the numbers in each line to the total, the items in the line for the unspecified be altogether excluded from the computation.

14.

That persons whose birthplace is stated to be "Australia," if under 12 years of age, be tabulated as born in the Colony to which the Census relates, and if 12 years of age or over in the column for "Australia undefined."

15.

That children respecting whom the return of religion is unspecified be tabulated as of the religion of their parents, if the father and mother are stated to be of the same religion ; or if the religion of only one parent is specified, as of the religion of that parent ; but that if the parents are of different denominations, no assumption be made as to the religion of the children, who are to be classed as unspecified.

16.

That the ages of the people of either sex be tabulated in single ages up to 21, then in quinquennial periods of age up to 85, and after that in single ages ; also, that a table be prepared showing the numbers of either sex in the whole population at each year of age.

17.

(A) That in tabulating the Occupations of the people, the numbers of either sex under 5 years of age ; between 5 and 15 ; 15 and 20 ; 20 and 25 ; 25 and 45 ; 45 and 65 ; and over 65 be distinguished.

(B) That the Occupations be tabulated according to the system of classification adopted by this Conference ; also, that subsidiary tables be compiled showing :—

(1) The ordinary Occupations of the unemployed of either sex, a person to be considered as unemployed it out of work for more than a week prior to the Census.

(2) Employers of labour and persons in business for themselves, relatives assisting, and wage-earners ; no person to be considered as belonging to one of the foregoing divisions who is not actually employed.

(3) The ordinary or former occupations of inmates of either sex of (a) hospitals, (b) benevolent asylums, (c) hospitals for the insane, (d) other charitable institutions, (e) gaols and penal establishments.

(c) That in the main tabulation, in the case of a person returned as following more than one occupation, he be tabulated, as a rule, under the head of the first mentioned,—the exception being a Government officer following some other calling,—as, for instance, "deputy-registrar and storekeeper," in which case he is to be classed as a storekeeper ; also, a person residing where one of his occupations is carried on which would warrant its being considered as the more important, as, for instance, "farmer and publican," living at the public-house, is to be classed as a publican, although that calling may be stated second ; also, that a subsidiary table be prepared showing the persons who follow two or more occupations.

18.

(A) That in the table of Education the people be grouped in single ages up to 21 years, and after that in quinquennial periods to 85 years of age ; those of either sex able to read and write, able to read only, and unable to read, being distinguished.

(B) That no child under 3 years of age be set down as able to read, and no child under 5 years of age as able to write ; also, that no person be set down as illiterate who can read or write any foreign language.

(C) That a table also be prepared showing the degree of primary instruction possessed by children between 5 and 15 years of age of each religious denomination ; and

(D) That a further table be prepared in age groups showing the education of persons born in the Colony (exclusive of aborigines).

19.

(A) That in the tables of Conjugal Condition the people be grouped in single ages from 14 to 21 years of age, those of either sex never married, married, widowed, or divorced, being distinguished ; that Chinese be set down as never married unless they have or have had wives in Australasia.

(B) That a table he prepared showing the relative ages of husbands and wives ; also the number of wives whose husbands were absent, and of husbands whose wives were absent, on the Census night.

20.

That a table be prepared showing the number of private families with domestic servants, distinguishing families with one servant, two servants, three, four, five, over five and under ten, ten and over ; and also similar particulars in respect of hotels, boarding-houses, &c.

21.

That tables be prepared showing the numbers of either sex suffering from each description of sickness or infirmity, grouped in single years of age up to 21, and afterwards in quinquennial periods up to 85 years of age ; that tables be also prepared showing the occupations of those suffering from each description of illness.

22.

That in the case of houses, public offices, banks, stores, &c., in which a person or family resides in order to take care of the premises, the number of rooms occupied by such person or family is to be given, and not the whole number in the building. Where a shop is attached to a dwelling the former is not to be considered a room without someone sleeps therein.

LOCAL PREPARATIONS FOR TAKING THE CENSUS ON THE NIGHT OF SUNDAY, 31ST MARCH, 1901.

The Census Act.

The Tasmanian Census of 1901 was taken under the provisions of a special enactment, "The Census Act, 1901," assented to on 24th August, 1900, which appointed the day upon which the enumeration was to be made, and gave the Superintendent of the Census (Government Statistician of the Colony) the authority necessary to carry out the various objects of the Census. The Act also gave authority for the appointment of the necessary officers.

Among other necessary provisions the Act followed closely upon those of the previous Census, making an exception in regard to religious belief, declaring it optional on the part of any person to state the nature of the faith, if any, professed by him ; answers to all other inquiries were made compulsory.

Means Adopted to Enlist beforehand the Interest and Co-operation of the Press and the People.

Prior to the taking of the Census of 1891 I felt that the success of the Census depended in a large measure upon the intelligent interest and willing co-operation of the people generally. To enlist their interest I prepared a small p&hlet, giving a popular account of "The Object and Utility of a Modern Census." With the approval of the Government, these observations, three months prior to the Census day, were printed in p&hlet form, and, together with a circular inviting the co-operation of the Director of Education, the School Boards, School Teachers, and the local Press, were widely distributed throughout the Colony. By such means, and by the hearty co-operation of the School Teachers and the local Press, the minds of the people generally were awakened and favourably interested. The same course was followed by me on the occasion of the taking the last Census, with like favourable results.

The following extracts, bearing upon the utility, scope, and other important matters relating to census-taking, are taken from the p&hlet referred to, as they serve as an appropriate introduction to the tabular analyses contained in subsequent chapters of this report :—

"THE COMING CENSUS OF AUSTRALASIA, FIXED FOR THE NIGHT OF 31ST MARCH, 1901.

"The Object and Utility of a Modern Census.

"Although the object and utility of a modern Census are now so well understood by all thoughtful persons, it cannot be overlooked that, among the people generally, there still exists a large amount of misconception which operates seriously in marring the accuracy of results which can alone be obtained by theintelligent co-operation of every person in the community.

"The next great national 'stock-taking,' fixed for the night of Sunday, 31st March, 1901, for all the States of the Commonwealth of Australia, and for New Zealand, is looked forward to with the most eager interest by all thoughtful persons. Nor is this to be wondered at. The vital, material, and social well-being of a nation depends in a larger degree than is ordinarily realised upon the accuracy of its knowledge concerning the number, character, and condition of its people. It is the greatmeasuring-rodfor determining and making timely provision for the supply of all material satisfactions, and for guiding us more securely in determining growing tendencies—whether for good or evil—thereby enabling us to make accurate forecasts, and to make timely and intelligent provision for checking the evil and fostering the good. The objects of a modern Census are altogether different from those of the ancients. The Census of David, recorded in the 24th chapter of the Second Book of Samuel, was instigated purely by the spirit of aggressive warfare or conquest ; and, accordingly, its scope was confined to the number of'valiant men who drew the sword.'The only warfare which the modern Census enumeration contemplates is confined to the peaceful conflicts of industry and commerce, and the discovery, subjugation, and control of the unknown or adverse forces of nature.

"Instead of the mere enumeration ofvaliant men who drew the sword,the modern Census seeks rather to ascertain the number of its'bread-winners,'and the number of young, aged, and helpless

dependants, in order to enable wiser provisions to be made for rendering the mutual exchange of services of the former more effective, and for making the training or care of the latter more in accord with the higher ideals of modern civilised life.

"But a Census enumeration does more than photograph the facts at the moment of Census-taking. It enables comparisons to be made with former periods, and from these we are enabled to determine many useful laws relating to the direction and rates of progression of all important movements and tendencies.

"Thus serious faminesin modern times, as compared with ancient times, are mainly averted, or their severity mitigated by statistical knowledge largely based upon the facts primarily ascertained by the Census. The lands devoted to agriculture and pastoral purposes year by year, if not wisely extended in harmony with the ascertained rate of the growth of population and its growing needs, would surely produce famine or misdirected and wasted labour, were it not that those whose interest it is to make provision are guided by statistical knowledge, which could only be rendered possible by periodic Census-taking. The termper headof the Statistician, though a meaningless symbol or phrase to the thoughtless or to the ignorant, is, to the statesman, the life insurance actuary, the director of education, the commercialentrepreneur, the sanitary adviser, the social economist—analagous to the never-failing 'barometer' or 'sounding-lead'— whereby the course of events is instantly disclosed ; thus making it possible to aid or counteract tendencies favourable or unfavourable, so far as such may be within human power.

"From what has been stated it is made sufficiently manifest that the great object of a Census is to gather such information as will be of material service in throwing light upon the more important social and economic questions, thereby making it possible to guide the affairs of the social organisation with greater intelligence and security as regards social and material well-being.

"Scope of a Census.

"The value of information gained by means of a Census primarily depends upon the intelligence, honesty, and disposition of the averagehouseholder.If we ask too many complicated questions we may put too great a strain upon average intelligence or comprehension, and the subsequent pretentious tabulation of the Statistician would be worthless or deceptive. If we arbitrarily seek to invade the privacy of the individual as regards means or income, morals, or even religious belief, we may certainly expect passive or indignant opposition, or—what is worse—we may receive from many, dishonest replies. The practical Statistician who has had experience in Census-taking would avoid failure due to such causes by strictly limiting the number of inquiries to such subjects as will not unnecessarily invade the privacy of the individual, and not place a greater strain than can be safely borne by the intelligence and honesty of thepoorest householder.

"There is little or no value in the pretentious tabular results of countries where the scope of Census inquiries have been framed with too little regard for such important considerations.

"The Weak Link of the Census.

"The strength of a chain is determined by itsweakest link, and the weakest link in Census-taking is thepoorly-educated householder. Many householders are unable to read and write, while a still larger number, from carelessness, ignorance, or lack of interest, fail to comprehend what is required of them in the filling up of the several columns of thehouseholder's schedule.The necessary notes of instruction at head of each column, &lified by more comprehensive notes of guidance and model forms of entry on the back of each schedule, appal and confuse many who are unaccustomed to interpretations of this nature.

"How can these difficulties be lessened, if not altogether overcome? Perhaps the most successful plan for securing and ifitensifying the interest of all persons in regard to the Census would be to secure the interests ofchildren at schoolsby the co-operation of School Boards, and especially by that of the localschoolmasterandschoolmistress.Let the Government call upon each Chief Superintendent of Census to prepare amodel lecturetteon the objects of the Census, and having done so, let there be issued—as on the occasion of the last Census in the year 1891—a printed copy of the lecturette and a blankhouseholder's schedule,accompanied by a courteously written circular addressed to thehead teachers of every school in the land,inviting their cordial co-operation by asking them to fix a special day for aCensus Lessonfor the children, accompanied by black-board illustrations as to the manner in which the householder's schedule should be filled up. If this were done, it is certain that it would be productive of the very best results. The lesson of the children would certainly take strong hold of the interest of parents, and there is not a humble home throughout the land where the lesson of the children would fail to penetrate, and where the less favourably educated parents would not fail to become, for the time being, the proud pupils of their own more favourably educated children. The Press—the great educator—may do much to forward this desirable idea in the interests of the public weal.

"Thus it appears the first proper Census of the Island was not undertaken until nearly 38 years after the date of its first settlement. This, however, is not to be wondered at when we consider that from the Middle Ages up to this time violent prejudices against the enumeration of the people prevailed in nearly all the countries of the world."

PREPARATORY WORK OF THE CENTRAL OFFICE OF THE CENSUS.

The success of a Census enumeration depends, in a large measure, upon the care taken by the Chief Superintendent of the Census in having the whole plan of operations thoroughly worked out in every detail at least nine months prior to the Census-day. This precaution is absolutely necessary when we consider the vast amount of preliminary work which must be completed not less than two

months prior to the actual distribution of Householder's Schedules throughout the whole Colony. Indeed, in populous countries the time required for such preliminary work may engage the close attention of a permanent staff during the whole time of an intercensal period.

The extensive character of this preliminary work, even in a small Colony like Tasmania, may be realised by a brief enumeration of the various forms, circulars, cards, books of compilation and instruction, devised, printed, and distributed in connection with the work of the last Census, in respect of a population of 172,475 persons, scattered over an area of 26,215 square miles.

It is of much importance to those who may have to undertake the work of a future Census to describe more particularly the nature of this work which must be completed long before the Census-day, as in the following summary :—

1. Devising form and printing Householder's Schedules in sufficient number to distribute a copy to every family or household, including a marginal reserve of about 20 per cent. to cover the uncertainties of estimates as regards new or abnormally increasing districts. About 50,000 Schedules were printed and distributed at the last Census among 390 Sub-Enumerators. The printing alone of these Schedules—on both sides-would form an eight-inch ribbon of printed matter, or nearly 22 miles in length, or cover an area of nearly 1.8 acres.

2. Preparing three sets of charts ; scale, 1 inch to the mile. A complete set for Central Office, one set divided among the Chief Enumerators of Census Districts, and one set divided and pasted upon the inside cover of each Sub-Enumerator's compilation book. All these charts were carefully hand-coloured, showing the numerous concatenations formed by the intersection of each Electoral, Municipal, Registration, Road Trust, City, and Town boundary. Each mesh or concatenation so formed was distinguished by a particular number, and being the ultimate "area-unit," it formed the so-called locality "Census Sub-division." In addition, each of the independent district boundaries, such as Electoral, Municipal, Registration, &c., were characterised by a distinctive boundary colour. As each of these larger divisions have their areas wholly made up of "area-units" or "Census Sub-divisions," it is a simple matter to compile particulars of the larger divisions from the catalogued "area-units" of which they are severally composed.

3. 3. Devising, classifying, and printing books of :—

   1. Instructions for the special guidance of Enumerators of Districts.

   2. Instructions for the special guidance of Sub-Enumerators.

   3. Instructions for the special guidance of Tabulators.

   4. Instructions as to the mode of-entering particulars in Sub-Enumerator's Compilation Book.

4. Printing about 205,000 cards (Tabulating Cards) specially devised for facilitating, and ensuring greater accuracy in the extensive and intricate work of Tabulation.

5. Printing and distributing a large number of necessary circulars to Enumerators and Sub-Enumerators in connection with particular stages of the work.

6. Selecting and appointing Census Staff, organizing and carefully drilling them in their various duties, especially as regards the exact limits of their respective district boundaries throughout the country.

7. Arousing the interest of the people, and invoking their aid in making the work of the Census a success, by means of advertisements, p&hlets, and especially by enlisting the kindly good-will and co-operation of the Press and of the Teachers of Colleges and Elementary Schools.

The details given in the foregoing list give some idea of the large amount of work involved in the preliminary preparations for Census-taking, and necessitates, long prior to the Census-day, the careful study and rehearsal of countless minutiae, the oversight of any one of the which might destroy the value of the whole work of the Census.

Work of Enumeration.

The actual work of Enumeration, and the methods and precautions taken to secure completeness and accuracy, are usually mixed up in the body of the larger number of introductory reports on such matters. In this, as in my Report on the last Census, I have in a large measure eliminated the minutiae which refer to the methods and precautions taken to secure completeness and accuracy, in order to impress more clearly upon the mind the extent and character of the actual work of Enumeration. The minute details of methods to secure accuracy and completeness can better be studied apart in appendices as embodied towards the end of this Report.

The Area to be Covered.—

In the first place it must be borne in mind that each Sub-Enumerator of a Sub-District mustpersonallyvisit every dwelling or resting-place for the night of every living person in the Colony at leasttwice ;the first visit for the purpose of distributing the householder's schedules ; the second, or more, visits devoted to the collection, examination, and if necessary the correction of schedules, and in a large number of cases, to writing out the whole of the answers to queries, in cases where the responsible person has from any cause failed to do so. The last visitation, therefore, involved the collection, examination, and correction of 36,470

schedules gathered from the same number of dwellings or resting-places, scattered over 26,215 square miles, within the space of about three days in most cases. The two visits alone, therefore, cover an area of 52,430 square miles, and to accomplish this in so short a space of time is the problem to be worked out by the Superintendent of the Census. The area which one person could cover in about the time referred to depends upon two factors :—

1. The density of population.

2. The distance which one person could cover per day, in country districts, either on foot or on horseback.

The greater the density of population enables the Collector to cover a larger population in a given time, but the work involved lessens his power to cover a large distance in traveling : and conversely, the smaller the density of population in a district enables the Collector to cover a larger distance in traveling. Hence it is manifest that in mapping out the work of Sub-Enumerators the size of their respective districts should, in a measure, be determined inversely in relation to the greater or lesser density of population.

By estimates based upon such considerations, aided by the local topographical knowledge of the Chief Enumerator of each Electoral District in the Colony, it was determined that the 26,207 square miles of Rural Districts could be covered by 351 Sub-Enumerators : thus on the average giving 74.66 square miles, 80.72 dwellings, and 370 persons to each Sub Enumerator. The Urban Districts (Hobart and Launceston) were likewise determined, and arrangements made provided that the work might be efficiently carried out by 39 Sub-Enumerators : thus giving an average of 19 square miles, 209 dwellings, and 1094 persons to each Sub-Enumerator.

The following summary shows in all respects the appointment of work of Enumerators for the principal divisions of the Colony forming the larger Census Districts, which, as in former Censuses, for the most part coincide with Electoral District :—

Thus upon the whole the actual work of the Census connected with Enumeration was carried out successfully by a staff of 390 Sub-Enumerators, being 1 to every 67.21 square miles ; 1 to every 93.5 dwellings ; or 1 to every 442 of the population.

Cost of Enumeration.

The total cost of the Census of 1901 was £3767, including all expenses connected with Enumeration, Tabulation, Furniture and Equipment, and General expenses, as follows :—

The cost of Enumeration is mainly determined by the work involved :—

1. In traveling from dwelling to dwelling throughout each particular district.

2. On the number of the population recorded on the householder's schedule.

In sparsely populated districts the greater proportion of the time and expense of the Enumerator is absorbed in traveling from dwelling to dwelling, the proportion in each district varying with the density of population—increasing relatively with sparsity, and decreasing relatively with density. The relativecost per head, on the other hand, progresses inversely to absolute cost, and to relative costper square mile.Hence it follows that as a population increase in density the cost per head becomes less and less ; while the absolute cost and cost per square mile really increases with the density, although at a differently proportionate rate. Thus it happens that the more densely populated Urban Districts of Tasmania (Hobart and Launceston) in 1901 only show a cost of 0.98d.per headfor Enumeration, while the Rural Districts cost 3.17d.per head.Reckoning by area, however, reverses this order : the cost of Enumeration in Rural Districts being only 1s. 3d. per square mile, while the cost in Urban Districts is as high as £23 11s. 8d. per square mile. The cost of Enumeration of a progressive place, district, or country, should show, under similar conditions, an absolute increase at each succeeding census, and relatively, the cost per square mile should progress inversely to cost per head ; the former with an increasing tendency, and the latter with a decreasing one.

The following is a comparative statement of the absolute and relative cost of Enumeration in Tasmania for the last four Censuses :—

The same law as to cost of enumeration and collection is also revealed between countries differing in density of population, and between themselves at different Census periods, as shown by the following illustrations :—

The study of the foregoing illustrations of comparative cost of enumeration in different countries and at different periods shows clearly how costper head diminisheswith increasing density of population, while a contrary increase in absolute cost and cost persquare mileinvariably happens with increase in the density of the population. A low costper head, therefore, taken by itself, is no test of economy ; for it can only be reduced as theabsolute costandcost per unit of area increases.The total cost of enumeration in Tasmania in 1901 being only 1s. 5d. per square mile, and 2.62d. per head, compares most favourably with former Censuses in Tasmania, and, on the whole, compares most favourably with the cost of enumeration in other countries when both factors are taken into consideration. Indeed the consideration that the absolute cost of enumeration is actually only £68, or 3.63 per cent., more than it was in the Census of 1891, while the population enumerated in 1901 is greater by 17.60 per cent., is the best evidence that can be afforded of the care taken to secure the information required at the lowest cost consistent with efficiency.

The Systematic Work of Tabulation, Summation, and Analysis.

The systematic work of summation, tabulation, and analysis involved in a modern Census is enormous. The whole work is carried out in the central office after the Schedules and Summaries of Enumerators have been gathered, checked, and arranged in classified order. Primarily, the extent of this work is determined by four fundamental considerations :—

1. The number of the Population.

2. The number of distinct categories under which information regarding the same person is again and again abstracted, re-arranged, computed, and set down.

3. The number of distinct sub-divisions under each category for which summaries are prepared.

4. The large number of calculations involved in determining the relative percentage proportion of the figures contained in the numerous summaries under the various categories.

The information required to be compiled by the Census of 1901, according to the plan agreed upon by the Conference of Australasian Statisticians, held in Sydney in the year 1900, embraces a larger number of categories than has ever been attempted before in any part of the British Dominions.

This is best shown by comparing the categories of the Census Schedule of Tasmania for 1901 with those of the Census of 1891 and 1881, as follows :—

The number of separate groupings of particulars relating to individuals, under the various categories, necessary to arrive at specific aggregates—afterwards arranged in classified summaries—is much greater than in any previous Census.

The Number of Distinct Categories Determine the Amount of Labour involved in Compilation and Tabulation.

To obtain with accuracy the aggregates under the sub-divisions of each category, from the general information relating to 172,475 persons, contained in 36,470 schedules, may seem a small matter when contrasted with the tabulation of the results of a large population, such as the United Kingdom or the United States. The labour of compilation, however, is not fairly gauged by the mere size or number of the population. It is true that the preliminary work of abstracting the particulars—provided the categories are the same—is fairly measurable by the number of the population ; but this need only absorb aboutone-fifthof the labour of permutation and summation, which latter may depend far less upon the number of the population than upon the number of the groupings for which aggregates have to be obtained and summarised under the various categories.

Take for ex&le some of the more notable of the earliest Censuses of which we have any definite account, as in the following references :—

Census of Moses (Number I., 1-46).

Categories restricted to—

Census Enumeration No.

"Number of the names, every male by their polls ; from twenty years old and upward, all that are able to go forth to war in Israel." The total of the Twelve Tribes (Levi not included) enumerated

603550

If we assume that this would include all males twenty years to, say, fifty years, it would represent a population of about 2,791,000 persons.

Census of Joab—Commanded by David.

Census Enumeration No.

There are two accounts of this very notable Census. That, according to account given in II. Samuel xxiv., 1-17, states that "The valiant men who drew the sword" of Judah and Israel, exclusive of Benjamin and Levi, numbered

1,300,000

The account of the numbering of the men of Israel and Judah "who drew the sword" at this Census, given in 1 Chronicles xxi., 1-17, sets the number down as 1,570,000. It is estimated, therefore, that a population which would yield such a large number of fighting men must have numbered something between 6,012,000 and 7,270,000 persons. It is noteworthy, therefore, that neither of these ancient Censuses embrace more than about 21 per cent. of the population, and contain only one simple category under each tribal division, viz., "valiant men who drew the sword" ; and yet (II. Samuel xxiv., 8) the latter of these Censuses took nine months and twenty days to accomplish. Compare this with the enumeration of 62,000,000 persons of the United States of America in the year 1890, under many categories, accomplished within a month, and in cities of over 10,000 inhabitants within a fortnight. Compare also the Census enumeration of 1901 in Tasmania, with an area nearly four times the size of Ancient Palestine, which was accomplished within ten days of the night fixed for the Census, and the results giving the numbers and proportions of both sexes, for every Electoral District in the State, together with elaborate comparisons with former Censuses, were actually published on 23rd April, 1901, that is within three weeks of the day actually fixed for taking the Census.

Method of Tabulation by the Ticket or Card System.

The successful tabulation of the previous Census by the Ticket or Card System induced me to adopt the same method in the tabulation of the results of the Census of 1901. It may be of great advantage to those who may have to undertake the work of a future Census in Tasmania, therefore, to describe more particularly the mode of working by this system. Although the groupings—numbering nearly a quarter of a million—under the various categories, relating to 172,475 persons

in the Census tabulation, are enormous, they are simply the result of the necessary permutations of fourteen simple categories, as follows :—

With a pre-arranged system of abbreviations all this information was abstracted upon specially printed tickets in respect of each individual upon the 36,470 Householders' or other Schedules.

These tickets, an ex&le of which is here given, were of four different kinds :—

• Colour white, plain —for Male Breadwinners.

• Colour white, barred —for Male Dependants.

• Colour pink, plain —for Female Breadwinners.

• Colour pink, barred —for Female Dependants.

• Colour blue, plain and barred—for Aliens.

• Colour buff—for Sick.

A ticket was thus prepared for each one of the 172,475 persons living in Tasmania on the Census night, and the persons employed in writing up tickets from schedules were paid for this preliminary work at the rate of 2s. 6d. per 100. The tickets were conveniently tied up in 2-set packets, males and females, one 2-set packet for each of the Census sub-divisions, corresponding to the unit of any of the district divisions for which results had to be obtained. Tied with each packet was a small label or tab-ticket, upon which was carefully marked the total number of tickets in packet, in conjunction with the number of Census subdivisions, and also name of clerk last using the packet of tickets. A work-book was also kept containing a complete register of the clerks engaged, with their daily work, to whom the tickets (with their numbers) and the classification division, or table allotted for each particular work, so that in event of any ticket being lost, the responsibility of loss or error could be located. These packets were carefully locked away in cell-presses according to a classified system of Census subdivision localities, so that the person in charge could deliver or replace in its classified position any packet at a moment's notice. Thus all danger of loss or disorder was obviated.

To give the utmost facility to the appointed tabulators special simple tabulating trestle-tables 8 ft. by 3 ft. 6 in. each were provided, each furnished with a lock-drawer underneath, and a vertical frame of ticket-cells fitted on to the back to secure the groups at various stages of the process of tabulating ; two ink-bottles, one for red ink, and one for black ink, were sunk flush with surface at each near corner ; while the surface of the table was divided vertically and horizontally by clearly marked lines, for arranging the tickets in distinct heaps in accordance with the particular classification in process of being carried out.

Much thought was necessary to secure the greatest amount of work by the least amount of labour ; but a few simple rules were devised and printed for this object, and also for preserving uniformity of procedure. The great principle, however, in beginning the work of tabulation relating to any stage was to fix upon thecategory and its subdivisions which were in every case common to several others—a constant, so to speak—and having so determined the category for the initial stage, then to break up the packet of the particular Census subdivision, and carefully arrange the cards at the top or side, as the case may demand, into as many subdivisions as, by previous classification, might be determined. Having distributed them in classified order, under this first category, next to count the number of cards composing each subdivision, at the same time recording the total of each group in the corresponding sub-division of this category in tabulating sheet. Finally, adding all such divisions, to prove that the aggregate agreed with the total number of tickets in the Census subdivision packet. This base of constants for other categories being proved, the tabulator would commence the next category by breaking up and dealing in the same way with each of the subdivisions in succession of the first category or constant, recording and checking with ascertained total as before. When second category was completed, he carefully restored each group of second category to its place, as a constant, in the original subdivision of the first category, and proceeded with the third, fourth, or more categories until all were complete in relation to the constant or first category selected. The small size, smooth surface, and stiffness of the tickets favoured rapidity in sorting and counting in orderly heaps on table along the marked divisions,in the smallest possible space; the latter consideration a matter of no small importance.

The constants common to several other categories—not reckoning sex or locality constant, which of course is preserved by using distinct tabulating sheets—were :—

1. Age in its fullest subdivision (embracing Conjugal Condition, Education, Instruction, Sickness).

2. Religions in subdivisions of classified Denominals (embracing Education, special groups of Age).

3. Birthplaces in subdivision of Country-born (embracing Education, Special Age groups, special grouping under conjugal condition).

4. Occupations, in subdivisions of Specific Occupation (embracing Special Age groups, Grades, Districts).

By such system the whole of the categories and their varied subdivisions were tabulated and checked in a very satisfactory and orderly manner. All unnecessary handling was obviated, and the greatest possible results were accurately secured with the smallest possible expenditure of labour.

The compilation of the Census subdivision results, under all predetermined categories, with their subdivisions were afterwards aggregated to form results under the various Districts under which it was determined they should be printed, whether in the detailed or summarised forms.

Where the number of cards under ultimate subdivision are very numerous, as in populous countries, the use of automatic ticket-counting machines would be required to facilitate labour ; but in counting the ultimate subdivision groups of a small population like Tasmania, the initial expense of such automatic aids would, upon the whole, cancel the advantage saved in hand counting.

My attention was also directed to the ingenious "Holerith" machine employed so largely in America and elsewhere, whereby the counting under all categories is effected simultaneously by electrical "make-and-break" contacts. But, so far as I was able to learn, the advantages are not so great as might be supposed, where the population is inconsiderable, as every distinct particular under each category must previously be indicated by holes punched by hand. The abbreviated signs on cards, I believe, can be done far more speedily and with greater accuracy and satisfaction.

SECTION II.—PROGRESS OF POPULATION.

The results of the Census of 1901, together with the comparisons with the year of the former Census (1891), are presented in the following table :—

Although this comparison shows an increase of 25,508, or an increase of 17.60 per cent. as compared with the Census of 1891, the comparative progress cannot be properly appreciated without reference to corresponding rates of progress in former intercensal periods, as shown in the following table :—

From the foregoing comparison it will be seen that, as regards absolute increase between any of the six intercensal periods, the greatest progress was made in the decade ending in 1891, the absolute increase being 30,962. The last Census takes up the second position, with an increase of 25,808.

The following places the several intercensal periods in their respective order of importance as regards the actual amount of increase :—

Inasmuch, however, as the several intercensal periods differ somewhat, the true rate of progress is not fairly indicated by the mere reference to the absolute amount of increase between each period. The following table gives the true order of progress, as determined by the decennial and annual rates of increase, thus :—

From this analysis it would appear that, although the absolute increase in population the last intercensal period takes up the second position in importance of the six periods compared, it falls into the fourth position when compared by the true relative rate of increase ; the first position being taken up by the first, or earlier, period, and the lowest, absolutely and relatively, by the third period in order of time.

YEARLY ESTIMATES OF POPULATION BETWEEN DIFFERENT CENSUSES.

The ordinary method adopted by Statisticians (between the actual points of time when different Censuses are taken) to form an estimate of the population in each year is to add to the last ascertained results of the Census the natural increase of births over deaths, and to add or deduct, as the case may be, the balance of external migration. The results of the balance of births over deaths may be fairly relied upon as correct in most countries where registration is systematically

Carried out ; but there is room for a considerable amount of error arising from imperfect registration of migration in young progressive colonies, where the element of migration is extremely variable, and, as a rule, bears a very high percentage to the total population as compared with the same element relative to the much larger populations of older countries. As a general rule also the balance of migration is by avery smallpercentageagainstthe older thickly populated countries, while, as a rule, the balance, by aconsiderablepercentage, isin favourof young progressive colonies. The following illustration brings this important consideration more clearly into view :—

At the close of the intercensal period of 1881-1891, in Tasmania, it was found that the yearly estimates of population, based upon the ascertained balances of natural increase and migration, were in excess of the truth by about 6.82 per cent. From this it was inferred that the Customs estimates were in each year of the interval under estimated, as regards Emigration or Departures, to the extent of about 7 per cent. Although during the intercensal period 1891-1901 a correction, making allowance for unrecorded departures, was made to the extent of 7 per cent, it was found at last Census that, at the close of the decade, the latest estimate was nearly 7 per cent. (6.92) in excess of the truth. During this period there was a much greater migratory movement to and from the new mining centres of the West, and it is inferred that the unrecorded departures by sea to other States were abnormally large.

IMMIGRATION.

The influx of a continuous stream of immigrants produces at first, to a small population, a much larger proportion of the annual increase than the ultimate major source of increase, viz., the annual rate of natural increase, or the excess of births over deaths. For ex&le, to a population of say 200,000, an influx, in one year, of 20,000 immigrants would represent an annual increase of as much as 10 per cent., while the normal natural increase would be above the average if it amounted to 2 per cent., representing only an increase of 4000. At a later stage, when the population reached say 10,000,000, an influx of 50,000 immigrants in one year would only represent one-half per cent., while the natural increase of say 2 per cent. would add as much to its population in one year as 200,000. This is the true reason why such abnormal annual rates of increase occur in the earlier decades of the wonderful development of these Australasian colonies, and it explains why the high annual rate of increase of 11.27 per cent., in the decade ending in the year 1861 has gradually fallen until it reached an average of only 1.78 per cent., per annum during the decade ending in the year 1901. The following table further illustrates the fluctuating character of the earlier periods of high rates of increase due to influx of immigrants, in young countries, as contrasted with the more normal progress of the United Kingdom with its great density of population, and in which the influence of migration on its annual rate of increase is so comparatively small that it may be altogether ignored.

The preceding table clearly demonstrates not only that the annual rate of increase of population in the younger countries is rapidly approaching the normal rates of the older and more densely populated centres of population, but also, as regards the latter, there is evidence of another cause in operation, especially during the last decade, having the effect of still further lowering the annual rate of increase of the population. From the beginning of the year 1881 the statistics of the United Kingdom and of the Australasian colonies show unmistakably that a great change has taken place as regards the social conditions of the people, and especially effecting the birth-rate in these countries. My friend, Mr. Coghlan, the distinguished Statistician of New South Wales, has made a special study of this important matter. In his statistical account of "The Seven Colonies of Australasia, 1901-1902" (pp. 502-503), he has made the following important observations :—

"It is a matter of common knowledge that for some years past the birth-rate in Australasia has been declining, and so important is the subject—not only as regards the growth of population, but also as affecting general progress—that in 1899 the author made a special investigation into the question of child-birth in Australia, but more particularly with reference to New South Wales. The conclusions arrived at with respect to that State, however, may be held to obtain for all the others, seeing the conditions of living do not differ materially in any of them. During the course of the investigation it was found, first, that for all women the proportion of fecund marriages is decreasing ; second, that among fecund women the birth-rate is much reduced as compared with what it was twenty years ago. It was also found that the decline had been persistent and regular since 1881, and this restriction of births in a young country like Australia, where immigration is discouraged, is a matter which must have far-reaching results, although its economic effects are only beginning to be seen, and should claim the serious consideration of all thoughtful people."

It is true that the lowering of the birth-rate at once, to some extent, operates in reducing the general death-rate also ; but the serious decline in the rate of natural increase, as shown in the following summary, is a strong additional reason for caution in forming any estimate of the growth of population in these colonies, during the next century :—

THE CAUSES UPON WHICH GROWTH OF POPULATION DEPENDS.

The growth of population depends on two causes—firstly, the excess of births over deaths ; and secondly, on the balance of migration. In this State the former is the principal cause of growth and has invariably shown a very much larger rate in the balance of births over deaths than the corresponding rates of the normal populations of older European countries. The difference in favour of this and other Australasian States, by the larger balance of births over deaths, as compared with the older and more densely populated countries, is mainly due to the much lower death-rate of the younger countries.

Since the year 1841 the balance of external migration has been subject to much fluctuation. Within the decades ending in 1851, 1861, and 1891 the balance of migration has been in favour of the State ; but within the decades ending 1871, 1881, and 1891 the balance has been against the State.

In the decennium, 1881-1891, the excess of births over deaths, or natural increase, was 25,001, or 21.60 per cent. ; while in the decennium 1891-1901 this increase has only been 27,987, or 19.08 per cent. During the last decade the birth-rate in the United Kingdom and in these Australasian colonies has declined in a very remarkable degree, and Tasmania has shown no excepto the general experience. Had the birth-rate of the former decade maintained itself in the decade ending in 1901 it is estimated that the births would have numbered 57,106, instead of the actual 48,374 ; that means a loss of 8732 to the population from this cause alone. As a set-off to this, however, there has also been a wonderful fall in the death-rate. During the decade 1881-91 the average death-rate was 16.20 per thousand ; in the decade ending in 1901 the average death-rate fell to 13.13 per thousand. This difference represents a saving of 5138 lives, and a corresponding gain to the population.

During the decade 1881-1891 the balance of migration was in the favour of the Colony, and added 5961, or 5.13 per cent., to the population. In the period now under review, however, the balance was against the State, and caused a loss of 2179, or 1.48 per cent. Had all the influences operating in the decade 1881-1891 maintained themselves in the last decade, it is estimated that the population on last Census day would have numbered 185,840, instead of 172,475 ; that is, it would have exceeded the actual by 13,365, or 7.75 per cent.

The fluctuations in the various causes affecting the growth of population in Tasmania since 1841 are shown more fully in the following comparative table :—

Although these comparisons with former periods are very useful in gauging the rate of progress which the State has made at different periods, it is necessary also to measure our progress as far as possible by contrast with other countries about the same time. The following table has been prepared with this object in view. The countries selected for comparison are England and Wales, Scotland, the several States of the Commonwealth of Australia, and New Zealand :—

The foregoing table gives, at a glance, a clear idea of the relative progress which the Australasian colonies are making as compared with the Mother Country ; the progress, relatively, of the former being still much greater on account of (1) the very much larger rate of natural increase (Victoria during the last decade excepted), and (2) to the balance of migration being largely in their favour.

The following is the order of the countries compared as regards the relative progress made by each within the last decade, Tasmania taking the fifth in order, thus :—(1) Western Australia ; (2) Queensland ; (3) New Zealand ; (4) New South Wales ; (5) Tasmania ; (6) South Australia ; (7) England and Wales : (8) Scotland ; and last, or (9), Victoria.

ABNORMAL HIGH RATE OF INCREASE IN AUSTRALASIAN COLONIES DURING THE EARLIER YEARS OF SETTLEMENT GRADUALLY BECOMING NORMAL.

The rapidity with which the population of young English colonies increases during the earlier stages—for ex&le, doubling in the space of 18 years—is marvelous, when contrasted with even the most vigorous of old densely populated centres. During the period 1841-1901 the United Kingdom only increased by 14,723,649, that is, only at an annual rate of 0.73 per cent. This rate, if continuous, would take 94.7 years to double the population.

The relatively more rapid progress of young countries—especially in the earlier stages of settlement—is mainly due :—(1) Relative to population, to the large proportional influx of immigrants from older centres, and (2) to the favourable hygienic conditions of a thinly populated country, tending to prolong the average life, and consequently to produce a much lower death-rate than is found common in the less favourably crowded centres of population of the Old World.

It cannot be expected, however, that the abnormally high rate of increase can be maintained in these Australasian colonies as the population increases beyond the limits of density of the Pastoral stage. This was referred to by the writer inThe Tasmanian Official Recordfor the year 1892, in the following terms :—

"It is a common fallacy to assume that the present (1881-1891) relative rate of increase in Australasia will be maintained over a long period of years ; for as population grows larger the immigration element will diminish proportionately, unless we assume, what is very improbable, that immigration will continue to increase at the same rate as the total population.

"The death-rate, too, now so favourable, will gradually increase to the normal rate of European countries as the people approach a similar density of population ; for it is now too well established that a more or less high death-rate is always a concomitant of densely populated centres.

"It is more probable, therefore, that the progress of population in Australasia during the next hundred years will follow the curve exhibited in the United States progress between the years 1790 and 1890, rather than that the rate of the last 30 years shall continue to be maintained for such a long period."

These predictions have been fully verified by the results of the last Census as shown in the following table :—

PROBABLE GROWTH OF POPULATION IN TASMANIA DURING THE NEXT CENTURY.

Turning our attention now to the future, and assuming that the annual rate of growth of population during the last decade (1.64) will be maintained without any material change throughout the next 100 years, the following table has been prepared showing the estimated population in single years for the first ten, and thereafter in intervals of ten years. The population of the Commonwealth is given for comparison at intervals of ten years. The annual rate assumed by me for the determination of the latter is taken at 1.73 per cent.

I have thus given as briefly as the nature of the subject permits the reasoning upon which elsewhere I have chosen to base my estimate of the growth of population in this State upon the latest rates of annual increase rather than upon averages which include the differing conditions of the earlier periods, involving, as they do, the unreliable disturbing conditions and non-recurring abnormal proportional increases due to influx of immigrants. It is even doubtful if the lower average rates of increase of the last decade can be maintained over so long a period as the next 100 years ; but when we consider that the nearness of the United States of America, with her still vast areas of undeveloped lands, open to the surplus population of Europe, the rapidly growing density of population in the former, and the resulting congestion of their labour market, may favour a diversion of a very much larger proportion of European surplus labour to Australia within the next thirty or forty years.

We have, therefore, good reason for the belief that the higher stage of development in the United States in the coming century may specially favour the progress of the Australasian group.

An estimate prepared by me, based upon the experience of twenty-one great countries, with a population of over 400 millions, demonstrates that the present civilization requires the cultivation of 2.25 acres per head for food and raw products. The present area of the United States is reckoned at about 2291 million acres. Allowing a need of the estimated requirement of cultivated land—viz., 2.25 acres per head—for supplying the whole round of wants of each person, and that three-fourths of her total area are capable of cultivation, then, if her population increases at her present rate of 1.96 per cent. per year, it would be so vast in 119 years (763 million persons) that the produce of every available acre would beIllegiblerequired forhome consumption.The checks to population, however, may be expected to increase, and this limit may be placed further back ; but it is clear that the need to withdraw, more and more, her present enormous export of raw products from external markets will greatly operate in enhancing the value of the virgin soils of the more distant Australasia, and so give an additional spur to her development in the coming years.

SECTION III.—DISTRIBUTION AND MOVEMENT OF POPULATION

NOTE.—The boundaries and number of Electoral Districts were much altered between the two last Censuses, and hence it is difficult to make strict comparisons between many of the Districts. Taken in groups as bracketed, and by the larger divisions, the comparisons may be regarded as approximately correct.

The order of the various Electoral Districts, showing the greatest relative increase and the least relative decrease since 1891, is shown as follows, beginning with the highest relative increase :—

From the above summary it will be seen that a third of the districts show a slight decrease, as compared with the previous Census, ranging from 1.0 per cent in the City of Hobart to 6.66 per cent. in the districts of Brighton, Richmond, Sorell, and Glamorgan.

Two-thirds of the districts, however, show increases ranging from 1.14 per cent. in the district of Deloraine to as high as 191.31 per cent. in the new rich mining centres of the West (viz., Lyell and Zeehan, including Cumberland).

The general movement of population, however, is better appreciated when studied in relation to the larger geographical divisions, as in the following summary :—

From this it would appear that numbers One and Two are above the average increase for the whole State, while the Third and Fourth divisions are much below it.

The following summary shows the absolute increases for the larger divisions. The order of relative progress, however, remains undisturbed, thus :—

RELATIVE ORDER OF IMPORTANCE IN RELATION TO THE TOTAL POPULATION OF THE LARGER GEOGRAPHICAL DIVISIONS.

The proportion of population in each one of the larger geographical divisions, in relation to the whole State has been greatly modified since the previous Census by the general trend of migration from the older settled districts to the new centres of the rich silver and copper mining fields of Western Tasmania. Although this movement of population from East to West has been

very large and general, it did not go so far as to disturb the order of relative importance of the larger geographical divisions as ascertained at the previous Census of 1891 ; thus :—

AGGREGATION OF POPULATION.

The absolute extent of aggregation, or centralization, of population of any country, and particularly as regards metropolitan centres, is in a large measure determined by the number of the total population of the country as a whole. The proportion which the capital or metropolitan centre of any country bears either to what is usually termed "urban" centres as a whole, or to the total urban and rural population, is quite an accidental matter, and varies extremely in different countries, in accordance with nature of the prevailing industries and with geographical and physical conditions. Thus, although the population of London in 1901 (4,536,063) only represents 13.95 per cent. of the total population of England and Wales, the total urban population of England and Wales (25,054,268) represents as much as 77.0 per cent. Compare this with New South Wales (Census 1891), where the metropolitan population of Sydney and Suburbs represents as much as 33.85 of the total population ; yet its total urban population is estimated at only 66.17 per cent.

These considerations will enable any one to correctly interpret the following table dealing with the relative growth of urban and rural districts in Tasmania since 1857, as indicated by the metropolitan district of Hobart and Suburbs and other urban districts of over 3000 inhabitants, as contrasted with the growth of rural districts under 3000 inhabitants, thus :—

The significance of the observations already made regarding aggregations in urban centres as frequently erroneously inferred from restricted attention to the accidental proportions which the capital city bears to the total population is most manifest in the above comparative table. It shows that urban centres of over 3000 inhabitants in Tasmania have gradually declined proportionally to

total population from 32.07 per cent. in 1857 to 24.75 per cent. in 1901. Inversely the rural population between the same periods has increased gradually from 67.93 per cent. in 1857 to 75.25 per cent. in 1901.

Still more marked is the danger of inferring truly the growth of rural and urban populations respectively, from the accidental proportions which the capital city of a country bears to the whole population, as shown by the following illustration :—

The difference in favour of the percentages of the rural populations of the two smaller countries would be much greater if the limits of what may fairly be regarded as urban populations were the same in all places under comparison. The limit of the older and more densely populated country is very much higher.

Further information regarding progress in Urban and Rural Districts since the year 1857 is given in the following table :—

COMPARATIVE PROGRESS OF THE POPULATION OF CITIES, TOWNS, VILLAGES, AND MINING CENTRES DURING THE LAST INTERCENSAL PERIOD.

The following table has been specially prepared to indicate the comparative rate of growth of population in the two cities, and in the various small centres of population which had been in existence prior to the Census of 1891 ; and also to show, in a general way, the trend of what may be termed the "internal drift of population" as in contradistinction to the "growth by natural increase."

The artificial restriction of comparison to centres of 100 persons and over, however, conceals to some extent the actual or true rate of growth, in the case of those small communities which, during the last Intercensal period, have passed from below to above the limit which the necessities of tabulation restrict recognition as distinct centres considered apart from the population sparsely scattered throughout the country in a less gregarious state.

The nature of the principal industries carried on in the various centres is indicated by letters thus:—

• A Mainly engaged in agricultural pursuits.

• P Mainly engaged in pastoral pursuits.

• A & P Mainly engaged in agricultural and pastoral pursuits.

• F Mainly engaged in fruit-growing pursuits.

• D Mainly engaged in dairying pursuits.

• TG Mainly engaged in timber getting pursuits.

• CM Mainly engaged in coal mining pursuits.

• GM Mainly engaged in gold mining pursuits.

• SM Mainly engaged in silver mining pursuits.

• SCM Mainly engaged in silver and copper mining pursuits.

• SLM Mainly engaged in silver and lead mining pursuits.

• SH Mainly engaged in suburb of Hobart.

• TM Mainly engaged in tin mining pursuits.

• SL Mainly engaged in suburb of Launceston.

• WP Mainly engaged in watering place.

* Indicates a new centre, or that the population was under 100 persons at the time of the previous Census.

Centres showing an Increase.

The following centres show rates of increase since previous Census above or below the average rate of increase of the whole State (17.60 per cent.) as indicated in descending order :—

Centres showing a Decrease.

The following 27 centres show a decrease as compared with the previous Census. It is significant, however, that few of the centres showing a positive decrease are to be found in the western or north-western portions of the State, which during the last intercensal period have, as a whole, made remarkable progress :—

Newly Established Centres.

The following is a list, in the order of their importance, of 16 centres of over 100 inhabitants, which have grown up or have become established since the previous Census :—

From the foregoing analysis we find that the cities, towns, and villages, &c., over 100 inhabitants, which numbered 79 in 1891, had increased to 88 in 1901 ; i.e., an increase of 9 ; and the population of these centres had apparently increased by 18,666 persons, or 23.21 per cent.

This, however, must be qualified by the consideration that the population of the 20 new centres in 1901, contains also the unknown element under 100 persons which existed in an embryo state in a number of these localities when the previous Census (1891) was taken. Even with this qualification, it is clear on the whole, that the city, town, and village populations have increased at a higher ratio than the residue scattered throughout the State, engaged in the primary industries of farming, mining, or timber-getting.

The highest increase, absolutely and relatively, is to be found in the centres of the new mineral fields in the Western and Midland Division ; and the lowest increase, absolutely and relatively, curiously enough, is to be found in the North-Western Division, where as regards increase in the rural element (under 100 persons) this division stands highest of the four. It is evident that this arises from the very rapid way in which the development of farm-holdings has taken place in this promising and progressive agricultural region of the State.

SECTION IV.—THE HABITATIONS OF THE PEOPLE.

The first attempt to obtain definite information as regards the habitations of the people was made in the year 1841, when the total number of dwellings recorded was 7758. Of these, 3459 were built of brick or stone, and 3489 of wood. At the last Census, or sixty years afterwards, it was found that the total number of dwellings had increased to 36,470. The population in 1841 was 50,216 ; in 1901 it increased to 172,475. Thus it would appear that while the number of distinct dwellings within this interval has increased 4.70 fold, the population has only increased 3.43 fold. This, no doubt arises from the fact that in the earlier stage of settlement the aggregation of large numbers of military and other persons living in barracks did not require the same number of distinct dwellings as in the altered circumstances of the State at the present time.

This is borne out by reference to the number of persons to each dwelling in 1841 and 1901, respectively ; in the former period the number of persons to each dwelling is found to be as high as 7.32 ; in the latter it is only 5.05.

The normal number of persons to each inhabited dwelling in the United Kingdom has ranged from about 5.33 in 1871, to 5.19 in 1901. In Tasmania during the same period the number of persons to each inhabited dwelling has similarily ranged from 5.50 in 1870 to 5.05 in 1901 ; the average of the later Census years being 5.26 persons per inhabited dwelling. The experience in the Mother Colony of New South Wales, in this respect, has been similar to that of Tasmania.

The two subjoined tables have been prepared to show various particulars relating to the number and character of the dwellings of the people at each Census since the year 1841.

The particulars as far as have been ascertained refer to :—

The number of dwellings.

Nature of occupancy.

Materials employed in Construction.

Rental :—

Number of dwellings under particular denominations as regards cost of annual rental.

Aggregate annual value of rental under the same.

The number of persons living in different classes of dwellings.

From the preceding tables we may perceive that in nearly every respect there has been a great improvement in the condition of the people, as indicated by the character of the habitations in which they live.

Inhabited Houses.—The number of inhabited houses (34,165) has increased by 6141, or 21.91 per cent., since the previous Census. This is a larger absolute increase than in any previous intercensal period, with the exception of the increase in the very prosperous period 1881-91, which was a little higher, viz., 6166.

As regards the character of the dwellings themselves, as indicated by the number of rooms per dwelling, and the number of persons living in improved dwellings, both as regards accommodation and value, the improvement at the last Census is very marked. The increasing proportion of those living in dwellings of Three Rooms and over is very noticeable, thus :—

This evidence of improvement in the material condition of the people is also confirmed by reference to the proportion of inhabited dwellings having an annual rental value of £10 and over. Thus in 1891 the percentage proportion of dwellings assessed at a rental value of £10 and over was 60.95 per cent. of all dwellings ; in 1901 this proportion was increased to 68.28 per cent.

These two factors are the best indices which we could select for determining the condition of the broad masses of the people. They indicate, most unmistakably, that a vast improvement in the homes of the people has taken place, and the figures shown also represent a very large percentage of the better class of dwellings when compared with the manner in which the masses of the people are lodged in the great cities of the United Kingdom. In Glasgow, for ex&le, Mulhall states on the authority of Mr. Hoey, that only 30.04 per cent. of the people were lodged in houses of three rooms and over in the year 1889. The importance of increased house room, from a health point of view, was at the same time clearly proved by Mr. Hoey in a paper read by him at the British Association, 1889, by the following illustration of the death-rate in that city, referable to the more or less crowded modes of lodgement, thus :—

The superior condition of the mass of the people in Tasmania, as regards the class of dwellings occupied by them, is also strikingly borne out when compared with the class of dwelling in which the mass of people in England and Wales were lodged in the year 1886, thus —

The vast difference between the lodgement of the masses of the people in a crowded city like Glasgow and in Tasmania is shown by the following contrast :—

A similar contrast could be furnished also in favour of the sister States of Australasia. No better index of the improved condition of the mass of the people of these States could be given than that afforded by the foregoing contrasts, wherein it is shown that about 20 per cent. of the lower industrial class have, by improved local conditions, been raised into the class next above them in social order, in Europe.

The distribution, density and other particulars relating to Dwellings in the various Electoral Districts are best studied in tabular form, as follows :—

SECTION V.—AGES OF THE PEOPLE.

To ascertain the number of persons living at each age period is one of the most important objects of a Census inquiry.

The knowledge which has enabled the higher civilised communities to accurately gauge and provide for the better education of the young ; the maintenance and improvement of the general health ; the humane provision for the support of the widow and orphan ; the care of the young and helpless in mines and factories ; just electoral representation, and many other important matters relating to the welfare of the people, all depend, most intimately, upon the accuracy with which we gauge the number of the living and dying at each age of life.

Owing to various causes—although fairly accurate results are obtained for the quinquennial and decennial groups of ages—the Census method of inquiry has never been able to furnish, directly, a strictly accurate statement of the ages of the peopleat each single year of life.

As to the statement of the exact age at each year of life, many persons are careless ; some, at the advanced ages, do not remember to a year or two the correct age. Persons of extreme old age are in some cases inclined to exaggerate their age, while those between 20 and 40 have a tendency to understate their age to a small extent. Males verging upon the age of 21, in many cases, state their age as 21. This may be due to a desire to avoid difficulties in the case of minors about, to marry, or where there is undue eagerness to obtain the electoral rights of manhood suffrage. Upon the whole there is disclosed by the Tasmanian Census, as in the Censuses of all other countries, a well marked tendency among such people to put themselves down at the nearest round period, notably at 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 ; and in lesser degree at the intervening nodes, 25, 35, 45, 55, 65, 75, 85. The round decennial periods seem to act like attracting cores round which the unconscientious and those whose ages are imperfectly known, segregate or cluster at the expense of the one or two contiguous years ending in the lower 9, or in the higher 1, especially the latter. The constancy of these slight false nodes was graphically illustrated by me at the last Census, and they correspond very closely with the results as obtained by the Census of 1901, as may be seen by the following illustration :—

To some extent the yearly variations in the balance of migration and natural increase of births over deaths may account for some proportion of the irregularities from the law of decrease in each succeeding year ; still it is evident, from the intensity and regularity of the segregation at the decennial nodes that they are mainly due to the causes referred to.

Although it would appear, therefore, that the number of persons livingat each single year of agecannot directly be ascertained exactly from the figures actually obtained from Census Schedules, the statistician can arrive at a very close approximation of the truth by the aid of the more accurate quinquennial and decennial groupings. In practice this method of determining the number of persons actually living at each single year of age has been found to approximate very closely to the truth, and to afford a practically safe foundation, in the hands of the skilled actuary, for the safe conduct of all matters relating to annuities and life insurance.

For Health Standards and other useful purposes, the information respecting ages, gained by the ordinary quinquennial groupings, fulfils all the necessary conditions with the utmost perfection.

With these preliminary observations regarding ages, we may now proceed to single out the more important generalizations for consideration and comparison.

Of the 172,475 persons returned at the Census of 1901, the ages of 172,328 persons (89,504 males—82,824 females) were specifically recorded in the householders' schedules, of which the following is a correct summary, by quinquennial and other useful age-groupings :—

The above summary gives in a convenient form all the most useful generalizations relating to age. To make it still more serviceable for general information the whole of the population, excluding the 147 unspecified, are also grouped approximately under headings, which convey in a more natural way

Contrast of Principal Age-Groups with former Census Periods.

The following Summary is designed to show how far the proportion of persons living at the more important Age-Groups in 1901, agree with or differ from similar groups at the three previous Censuses, 1870, 1881, and 1891 :—

In the foregoing table the proportion of persons living under 5 years and over 65 years respectively, is singled out specially, as the proportion of children and aged people in a community largely determines the true significance of average. Birth-rates and Death-rates, which are commonly calculated on the basis of the total population, without necessary qualifications as to the age-composition upon which the value of such averages chiefly depends for comparative purposes.

One of the most noticeable points in this comparison with former periods is the considerable fall in the number of children living under the age of five years as compared with the Census year 1891, notwithstanding the increase of 17.61 per cent. in the total population. The proportion of this important age-group to the whole population—12.12 per cent.—is much lower than recorded in any previous Census in Tasmania.

The lowered proportion of this important age-group at the last Census is undoubtedly due to the remarkable fall in the Birth-rate during the last decade, and especially during the last five years of the decade. During the same period a similar experience of this wonderful decline in the birth-rate has been observed in nearly all civilised countries, and particularly so in the United Kingdom, and in the States of Australia and New Zealand.

Mr. Coghlan, the thoughtful and accomplished Statistician of New South Wales, in his latest issue of "The Seven Colonies of Australasia," has drawn particular attention to this grave change in the social condition of the people in the following terms :—

"It is a matter of common knowledge that for some years past the birth-rate has been declining in the colonies, and so important is the subject, not only as regards the growth of the population but also as affecting the general progress, that in 1899 the author (Mr. Coghlan) made a special investigation into the question of childbirth in Australia, but more particularly with reference to New South Wales. The conclusions arrived at with respect to that colony, however, may be held to obtain for all the others, seeing that the conditions of living do not differ materially in any of them. During the course of the investigation it was found, first, that for all women the proportion of fertile marriages is decreasing ; second, that amongst fertile women the birth-rate is much reduced as compared with what it was twenty years ago ; and third, that Australian-born women are not so fertile as the European women who have emigrated to the colonies, although how far this is due to natural sterility, and how far to prevention, it is impossible to say. It was also found that the decline had been persistent and regular since 1881, and this restriction of births in a young country like Australia, where immigration is discouraged, is a matter which must have far-reaching results, although its economic effects are only beginning to be seen, and should claim the serious consideration of all thoughtful people."

If we now turn to the proportion of persons of 21 years of age and over (adults)—we find at the last Census that they represent almost exactly half the population (50.18 per cent.) ; persons between 5 and 65 years of age represent 83.81 per cent. ; and the group 65 and over represents

4.26 per cent. of the total population. Thus it appears that the two great extremes, 0-5 and 65 and over, both show a decline in their proportions, as compared with former Census periods ; while the great intervening group, 5-65, shows a markedly increased proportion to the whole. Although upon the whole the males at "Worker's age"—20-60—preserve nearly the same proportion as at the previous Census, the proportion living at the most effective age-period 20-40, or "Soldier's age," shows a slight decline. It is probable that this decline at the most vigorous age, as regards the male population, is due to the smaller demand for labour locally since days when a larger amount of railway and other public works were being carried on throughout various parts of the State. The greater attraction for common labour in the mining centres of Western Australia, and the considerable migration to South Africa no doubt has drawn from Tasmania a considerable number of young men at this the most effective age-group.

CONTRAST OF AGE-GROUP PROPORTIONS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES.

The full significance of the proportions at particular age-groups, however, can only be appreciated by comparisons with other countries. But even then caution must be used in drawing inferences from particular cases. A relatively low or high proportion of any age-group may be the effect of very different causes. This applies particularly to age-group proportion 20-65. In Western Australia, the high proportion of group 20-65, viz., 62.20 per cent., is mainly the result of theintrusion of an abnormally large number of immigrantsdrawn from other countries. In France an abnormally high proportion is maintained within the same age-group,owing to a continuous and abnormally low birth-ratetending to produce an almost stationary population.

Another cause tending to increase the proportions of the older age-groups may be found in countries where, owing to climatic or other causes, the death-rate of children under 5 years is excessively high.

Thus, immigration, a stationary population caused by a low rate of fertility, and a prevailing high death-rate among children, may equally be potent in producing an abnormally high proportion at the higher age-groups.

On the other hand, a high rate of fertility tends to diminish the proportion of ages at all the higher age-groups.

PROPORTION OF VARIOUS AGE-GROUPS IN TASMANIA CONTRASTED WITH SIMILAR GROUPS IN VARIOUS COUNTRIES.

The two following tables have been prepared to illustrate more particularly the effects upon age-group proportions arising from differing causes as indicated in previous remarks :—

POPULATION AT VARIOUS AGES IN AUSTRALIAN STATES AND IN NEW ZEALAND COMPARED.

A more extended comparison of the composition of the population, by ages, is given in the following table :—

From these two tables it would appear that France affords the best ex&le of a comparatively stationary population ; and it is interesting to observe how closely its proportions, at the various age-groups, correspond with those of an Ideal Stationary Population, as determined by George King ("Text Book, Institute of Actuaries, 1887").